The final 2010 edition of Global Market Perspective provides our view on the likely shape of commercial real estate markets across the globe in 2011. Over the next 12 months we expect to see a much greater divergence in real estate activity and performance and our top 10 trends for 2011 are:
1. Global direct commercial real estate investment volumes will rise by 25-35% on 2010 levels. A significant weight of equity capital will target real estate and fresh capital-raising will further enliven the market
2. Banks and servicers will adopt a more aggressive approach to the disposal of non-performing assets, leading to the release of more secondary product
3. The CMBS market in the US will continue to gather pace, but will remain well below pre-Crisis levels
4. Leasing volumes will be at their highest level since the Global Financial Crisis, with corporate occupiers displaying greater confidence to do deals - but they will continue to push for the best possible terms
5. Asia Pacific will lead the upswing in leasing markets, ahead of Europe and North America
6. Prime property will continue to outperform secondary. Expect double-digit capital value growth for trophy assets in many of the world’s high-order business hubs
7. Shortages of prime product in Tier I cities will encourage investors to widen their search to Tier II
8. Latin America will continue to build momentum, attracting strong corporate occupier and investor interest
9. A lack of available Grade A stock in many markets will start to limit relocation options for corporate occupiers
10. The domestic corporate sector will come to the fore in Asia Pacific, particularly in India and China
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